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I Will Go Down With This Ship
Before I get into bracketology let me just share with you the saddest email I've received all week:
After advancing to its first America East championship final since 2003 and winning eight of its last 10 games, the Terriers have accepted a bid to participate in the third-annual College Basketball Invitational. Making their 12th postseason appearance, they will travel cross-country to face defending champion Oregon State.
No folks, not the NIT but the third best Division I Men's College Basketball post season tournament. I tried to catch the America East championship on Saturday but it just so happened to be my son's first birthday so I was running around picking things up for his party. As they did in the 2006 quaterfinals; the 2003 finals (at home); and the 1981 finals in triple overtime, the Boston University Terriers lost to Vermont Catamounts, losing an opportunity to go to the NCAA Tournament. The only time they've beaten Vermont in the America East Tournament is a 1983 quaterfinals victory.

The Catamounts have an especially wretched place in my heart. When they suit up against Syracuse on March 19th it will be five years ago plus a day that they beat Syracuse the night before my wedding. That's on top of always beating BU during my undergrad years. It's funny, when the pairing popped up I thought "are you kidding me" while my brother thought "payback". A 16 has never beaten a 1 so it does indeed look like payback time. Though we all know how Syracuse can make things interesting.

I haven't picked my brackets yet but I'm going by my Law of Brackets and picking the Cuse to go all the way. Not picking your #1 seeded college basketball team is like betting against your team in the Super Bowl. Rationally I know that Kansas and Kentucky are the best teams in the tournament but how can I not root 100% for my team now that they're a #1? I can't.

First, let's defend Syracuse's #1 seed. Duke sneaked ahead of them as the third number one, shoving them out west as a result. Syracuse is a better team in a better conference but did nothing in the BET while Duke won theirs. I'd argue Cuse still deserved it but not by much. West Virginia may have had a claim to the spot given that they won the conference tournament Syracuse floundered in and ended up one spot ahead in the RPI. I place a lot of importance on conference tournaments. The problem is that Syracuse won the regular season championship by two games over WVU and, most importantly, beat them in Morgantown. Ohio State had a weaker case. They not only play in a worse conference but they ended up with three more losses, two of which came to teams Syracuse beat - UNC and the aforementioned WVU.

As for Syracuse's region, Kansas State is legit; Pitt handed us our first loss of the season; Vandy and Butler don't scare me but I haven't really seen them; Xavier plays like Pitt I've heard; BYU and Gonzaga are good mid-majors; Florida, Florida St.,and Minnesota are crappy major conference teams; UTEP could beat Butler; oh hai Murray State, Oakland, and North Texas.

The Final Four has Cuse and Kansas in it for sure. Kansas is complaining about a tough region for being the number one overall seed. Ohio State was the second best #2, Georgetown is hot and Maryland almost won the ACC. Given Georgetown's track record this year I don't see them piecing together enough great games in a row to get out of that region though. Lots of people are picking West Virginia and I want to as well but I'm not going to. Kentucky is just really good. I don't know about the south. I'm thinking about picking Louisville to knock off Duke but I'm wondering if that's just my pro-Cuse (Louisville beat them twice), anti-Duke biases. I want to pick Nova but I'm weary of Baylor. Baylor may be a little overrated at this point but they seem to be trending up while Nova is trending down. That should be a good Big East vs. Big 12 match-up to see which conference is stronger.

Other thoughts: Notre Dame and Marquette are both 6 seeds and could cause some trouble. I thought Notre Dame wasn't getting in because the committee had already put two Big East teams in the the south region (Louisville, Notre Dame, and Villanova). The west has Pitt and Cuse. The Marquette and West Virginia are in the east and Georgetown is in the midwest. Cornell is not a good 12 seed. Don't pick 'em. The A-10 got three teams this year and the PAC-10 graciously got two (though I don't understand why Cal was not considered a lock). I'll get to my brackets tomorrow.

Update: (3/17/2010 5:34:40 PM) Cuse Country has the right idea.
As I share a connection to BU, I share a distaste for the Catamounts. However, I can't let this slide:
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"Syracuse is ... in a better conference [than Duke]." I'm not so sure. I'd certainly agree that the second, third, and fourth best BE teams are better than the second, third, and fourth best ACC teams. Keep in mind that the BE is 16 teams when compared to the 12 of the ACC.
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If the best 1/4 to 1/3 of the teams are better, doesn't that make the conference better? I'm not so sure. I think that the mediocre teams in the ACC are better, and I think that the bad teams in the ACC are better. Combine that with the ACC's less imbalanced schedule, and it makes it harder for teams to rise to a .750+ conference winning percentage. To be sure, I get no pleasure claiming that my baby sister could beat up your baby sister, but there it is.
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Anecdotally, it's worth noting that the BE is 1-2 in the NIT thus far, whereas the ACC is 2-0, including a hot NC State team sneaking past a cold USF.
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50% of the ACC went to the NCAAT; 50% of the BE went to the ACCT. 25% of the ACC went to the NIT; 32% of the BE went to the NIT. Maybe this undermines my claim that the ACC mediocres are better... we'll see how they fare in the NIT. How about the bottomfeeders? Miami, BC, and UVa vs. Providence, Rutgers, and DePaul?
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Bah. I seem to have talked myself into believing that the Big East is better this year. Their top is certainly better, the middle is very close (perhaps the NIT will decide), and while I would claim the ACC bottom three are better than the BE bottom three, that's hardly enough to hang my hat on.
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OK. Carry on.

Posted at 3/17/2010 1:21:17 AM by stomv


(2) Nova almost lost.
(3) Georgetown did.
So did (6) Marquette.
So did (6) Notre Dame.

Still feel strongly that the Big East is better than the ACC?

Posted at 3/18/2010 10:34:00 PM by stomv


 
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